TIA’s 2004 Election Model


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Interactive Election Model

"Run your own Excel Interactive Election Model Simulation"

Edited by TruthIsAll on Tue Sep-20-05 08:16 PM

You should have Excel 2002 to run the model.

The purpose of this interactive simulation is primarily educational. It's based on the the Monte Carlo simulation model I developed to project the probability of a Kerry electoral vote victory based on final state polling.

Final state pre-election polls included Zogby, ARG, Gallup, Survey USA and others. You can change these percentages.

Press F9 to run the simulation of 200 trials. The probability of a Kerry state win will change as well as his total popular and electoral votes. In the actual Election Model, there were 5000 simulation trials.

The probability of a Kerry electoral win is equal to the percentage of the 200 trials that he wins. The model totals up the electoral votes for the states in which Kerry wins a majority of the popular vote. If the total electoral vote is 270 or more, he wins that trial.

Note that the margin of error (MoE) is assumed to be 4% for each state poll. This is typical for a state poll of 600 respondents.

You can change the percentage of undecided voters who you assume will vote for Kerry. As this percentage increases, so will his final popular vote - and perhap the electoral vote also. Undecided voters have historically voted 60-80% for the challenger. As expected, the exit polls indicated that Kerry won a majority of late undecided voters. And he also won a solid majority of new voters. And an even larger majority of former Nader voters.

That's why Kerry won. And you know that he knows that we know that he knows he did.

Have fun.

Excel Interactive Election Model Simulation