Edited on Wed Jul-13-05 05:34 PM by TruthIsAll

EXIT POLL ANALYSIS THREADS
July 12, 2005


Election Model Projection
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel /


National Exit Poll
2:05pm Nov.3, 13660 Respondents
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/U...

National Exit Poll
12:22am Nov. 3, 13047 Respondents
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

National Exit Poll
7:38pm Nov 2, 11027 Respondents
http://www.exitpollz.org/CNN_national2.htm

National Exit Poll Timeline (pdf):
11/2/04, 3:59pm 8349 respondents
http://www.exitpollz.org/mitof4zone/US2004G_3737_PRES04...

11/2/04, 7:33pm 11027 respondents
http://www.exitpollz.org/mitof4zone/US2004G_3798_PRES04...

11/3/04, 12:22am 13047 respondents

11/3/04, 1:25pm 13660 respondents
http://www.exitpollz.org/mitof4zone/US2004G_3970_PRES04...

US Count Votes: new version of Working Paper (Updated June 26, 2005)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

ELECTION 2004: THE COMPLETE GRAPHICAL REFERENCE
Edited on Sun Apr-03-05 01:57 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

ELECTION INCIDENT REPORTING SYSTEM (EIRS)
https://voteprotect.org/index.php?display=EIRMapNation&...



EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZER: KEY RESULTS
Edited on Sat Jul-09-05 06:05 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


It's a shutout: FRAUD 3 , rBr 0
Edited on Wed Jul-06-05 12:38 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Linear Regression GRAPH: Kerry State Vote vs. Exit Poll completion Edited on Mon Jul-04-05 10:47 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Optimizer sensitivity analysis: aggregate alpha vs. partisan alpha
Edited on Fri Jul-01-05 02:26 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Bush approval/disapproval by state: clues about the fraud?
Edited on Wed Jun-29-05 01:57 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


ELECTION 2004 BY THE NUMBERS
Edited on Tue Jun-28-05 12:21 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

15% OF GORE VOTERS (7.65 MM) SUFFERED FROM ALZHEIMER'S IN 2004
Edited on Mon Jun-27-05 07:11 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Naysayer Hobson's Choice: Final NEP or rBr? Take your pick.
Edited on Thu Jun-23-05 02:12 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

To believe Bush won, you must believe this.
Edited on Sun Jun-26-05 11:02 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

EXIT POLL NAYSAYERS: A 3RD GRADE ARITHMETIC TEST
Edited on Mon Jun-20-05 04:37 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

WPE and Aggregate Precinct Data Tell Us Where the Election was Stolen...
Edited on Wed Jun-22-05 04:39 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


THE CLINCHER: Kerry wins 120 of 120 scenarios
Edited on Tue Jun-21-05 02:12 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

The Exit Poll Response Optimizer confirms the USCV simulation
Edited on Sun Jun-19-05 07:08 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

The Final National Exit Poll is a FRAUD. Here's proof.
Edited on Mon Jun-20-05 11:44 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

First rBr, now eDp (Exuberant Democratic Pollster)
Edited on Wed Jun-15-05 12:19 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

To match WPE, alpha must = 1.155.
Edited on Tue Jun-14-05 08:24 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


OPTIMIZER: EXIT POLL RESPONSE PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
Edited on Mon Jun-13-05 08:19 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


LET'S RUN THE OPTIMIZER ASSUMING RELUCTANT KERRY RESPONDERS (rKr)
Edited on Sun Jun-12-05 09:52 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


What are the odds?
Edited on Sat Jun-11-05 05:26 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


POLL BAD, VOTE COUNT GOOD: The RW (M)ost (O)utrageous (E)xcrement
Edited on Sun Jun-12-05 12:25 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


EXIT POLL ALPHA OPTIMIZER: MAXIMUM BUSH AND KERRY VOTE%
Edited on Sat Jun-11-05 09:05 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


HERE'S WHAT BUSH NEEDED IN ORDER TO WIN 51.23%
Edited on Sat Jun-11-05 12:56 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


QUANTS: To match WPE = - 6.77%, wtd alpha must be at least 1.15
Edited on Fri Jun-10-05 02:22 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


OPTIMIZER: Assume the exit polls were RIGHT
Edited on Wed Jun-08-05 02:20 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


TO BAIMAN, FEBBLE, OTOH, TFC, O'DELL, etc: IS rBr PLAUSIBLE?
Edited on Sun Jun-05-05 04:15 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

WHAT IS THE EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZER TELLING US ABOUT rBr?
Edited on Sun Jun-05-05 10:15 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL: Bush needed 55.2% of refusers
Edited on Sat Jun-04-05 02:33 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Non-linear optimization (Excel "Solver") proves rBr is Null and Void
Edited on Tue May-31-05 02:27 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Which of these facts convinced you that the election was stolen?
Edited on Fri May-27-05 10:06 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Census/Exit Poll Gender Vote Probability Analysis
Edited on Sat May-28-05 12:51 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


2-3 MILLION LOST KERRY VOTES?
CENSUS: 125.7MM; RECORDED: 122.3MM
Edited on Thu May-26-05 05:21 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

CENSUS DATA MATCHED NATIONAL EXIT POLL WEIGHTS(12:22AM, 13047 SAMPLE)
Edited on Fri May-27-05 07:50 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Miracle of Coogan's Bluff (1951) vs the Miracle of Bush's Bluff
Edited on Thu May-26-05 12:42 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Another probability analysis to illustrate why rBr is implausible....
Edited on Wed May-25-05 01:51 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

A new Poly Sci Statistic: The sBr (shy Bush responder) differential
Edited on Tue May-24-05 03:11 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

IS rBr STILL BREATHING? REQUIRED BUSH % OF REFUSERS IS IMPOSSIBLE!
Edited on Sun May-22-05 01:34 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

THE EAST WAS THE rBr BEAST
Edited on Sun May-22-05 11:20 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Exposing the Myths: One by One
Edited on Sat May-21-05 10:30 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

rBr: The Bush voter equivalent of WMD. There's no there there.
Edited on Wed May-18-05 10:39 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Prob (86 of 88 screens switch K to B):
1 in 79,010,724,999,066,700,000,000
Edited on Sun May-15-05 10:23 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

AAPOR? ESI? Does Not Prove Fraud?
Edited on Sun May-15-05 09:17 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

YOU WANT KERRY? PRESS RIGHT HERE. DON'T YOU WORRY
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

NON-RESPONSE BIAS? HERE'S WHY IT HURT KERRY MORE THAN BUSH.
Edited on Sat May-14-05 05:46 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

To Believe that Bush won.....
Edited on Fri May-13-05 10:21 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

PROBABILITY ANALYSIS: THE RBR HYPOTHESIS IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE!
Edited on Sat May-14-05 01:34 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Can someone explain this RBR inconsistency?
Edited on Sat May-14-05 07:05 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Freeper Logic: aBr, the Alzheimer Bush Responder Hypothesis
Edited on Fri May-13-05 10:38 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

MORE NUMERICAL EVIDENCE KERRY WON: 2004 TURNOUT SCENARIOS
Edited on Thu May-12-05 08:24 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


NAT. EXIT POLL GRAPHS: TIMELINE, KERRY MARGINS, VOTER TURNOUT
Edited on Thu May-12-05 09:18 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


WHERE DID BUSH FIND 13 MILLION NEW VOTES?
Edited on Tue May-10-05 09:00 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

BYE, BYE rBr: IMPLAUSIBLE VOTER TURNOUT SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Edited on Tue May-10-05 02:40 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Could 14.4% of Gore voters have voted for Bush?
Edited on Sun May-08-05 09:32 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

YOU DECIDE: DO THESE FIVE SCENARIOS MAKE rBr IRRELEVANT?
Edited on Sun May-08-05
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Even assuming rBr, it takes a MIRACLE to reverse Kerry's margin
Edited on Sat May-07-05 02:30 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Our Evidence vs. Their Evidence
Edited on Sat May-07-05 01:22 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

The Reluctant Republican Responder was a KERRY voter!
Edited on Sat May-07-05 03:05 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


FEBBLE: WILL YOU COMMENT ON THIS MYSTERY?
Edited on Tue May-03-05 09:28 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


The Reluctant Gore Responder (RGR)
Edited on Mon May-02-05 01:50 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


PUZZLE FOR DUERS:NATIONAL VS. STATE GENDER DEMOGRAPHIC MATCH-UP
Edited on Sat Apr-30-05 01:22 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

12:22am State Exit Poll Gender Breakout: Kerry won 329 EV
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

HOW KERRY WON OHIO BY 51-48%
Edited on Fri Apr-29-05 10:37 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE NEP TIMELINE
Edited on Thu Apr-28-05 07:25 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


THE 13047 NATIONAL EXIT POLL MATCHED STATE EXIT POLLS TO WITHIN .06%
Edited on Sun Apr-24-05 11:44 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


STATE / NATIONAL EXIT POLL ANALYSIS BY REGION
Edited on Sun Apr-24-05 03:10 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


REFUTE THESE ODDS!
Edited on Sat Apr-23-05 06:16 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Z-score Probability (Bush Z>1 in 35 states): 1 in 4500 trillion
Edited on Sat Apr-23-05 01:28 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Red Shift: Z-scores and Probabilities. Take a deep breath.
Edited on Sat Apr-23-05 03:26 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

The Exit Poll Gender Demographic: Another Smoking Gun?
Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 09:51 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

The MoE Formula: Mitofsky agrees its 1.0% for over 8000 respondents
Edited on Fri Apr-15-05 05:15 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Bush Exit Poll Job Approval: A smoking gun?
Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 02:07 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

TIMELINE
Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 02:30 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

U.S. General Election Poll-7:37pm: "Estimates NOT for on-air use"
Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 12:31 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

FL Optiscans vs. Touchscreens
Edited on Mon Apr-18-05 02:42 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


The National Exit Poll: A Tragedy in Three Acts
Edited on Fri Apr-15-05 10:59 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Calculate SAMPLE-SIZE for any MoE and confidence level
Edited on Thu Apr-14-05 09:53 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

National Exit Poll Analysis: Using FACTUAL Historic Data
Edited on Mon Apr-11-05 10:58 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

WAS THERE A (N)ATURAL (B)USH (R)ESPONDER?
Edited on Sun Apr-10-05 02:10 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

WHICH IS IT: RBR OR EBR ?
Edited on Sat Apr-09-05 09:35 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

THE BUSH "BANDWAGON" EFFECT...
Edited on Fri Apr-08-05 09:49 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER OR REINCARNATED BUSH RESPONDER?
Edited on Mon Apr-04-05 03:22 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Another Exit Poll Mystery: Party ID. Can you solve it?
Edited on Sat Apr-02-05 02:52 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Voted, Died, Reborn, Did Not Vote
Edited on Fri Apr-01-05 09:46 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

IF YOU BELIEVE THESE FACTS, THEN YOU MUST ALSO BELIEVE...
Edited on Fri Apr-01-05 12:58 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

A 9TH GRADE ALGEBRAIC SMOKING GUN
Edited on Fri Apr-01-05 01:42 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

EXIT POLL MYSTERY: How Voted in 2000; 43% Bush/37% Gore
Edited on Wed Mar-30-05 11:13 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS:KERRY'S NATIONAL VOTE MARGIN OF VICTORY
Tue Mar-29-05 08:35 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


View the Mathematical FACTS for the TRUTH...
Edited on Tue Mar-29-05 10:38 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


FASTEN SEAT BELTS. THIS IS THE CLINCHER.
Edited on Tue Mar-29-05 01:47 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


THE FINAL NEP PADDED A MINIMUM OF 3.85 MIL TO BUSH VOTE
Edited on Mon Mar-28-05 02:18 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


NEW VOTERS VS. 2000 VOTER TURNOUT: KERRY WINS 57 OF 60 SCENARIOS
Edited on Sat Mar-26-05 11:21 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO: KERRY WON BY 7 MILLION VOTES
Edited on Sat Mar-26-05 06:16 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Reluctant Bush Responder? Or Resurrected Bush Responder?
Edited on Fri Mar-25-05 05:43 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


HOW TO RED-SHIFT THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL IN 6 EASY STEPS...
Edited on Thu Mar-24-05 11:44 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


BASED ON THE U.S. ANNUAL DEATH RATE OF 8.7 PER 1000...
Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 09:30 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


FINAL NEP OVERSTATED BUSH VOTE BY AT LEAST 2 MILLION VOTES
Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 02:01 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


FROM 13047 TO 13660: THE MAGIC 613 FINAL NEP RESPONDENTS
Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 10:26 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

FOUR VERY RED FLAGS....
Edited on Sat Mar-19-05 01:38 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE: THE FULL STORY IN 3 GRAPHS
Edited on Sat Mar-19-05 09:22 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


PROBABILITY TABLE: Exit Poll Margin of Error vs. Vote Deviation
Edited on Thu Mar-17-05 12:37 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy: Explained
Edited on Tue Mar-15-05 01:23 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


A SUMMARY EXIT POLL MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION
Edited on Mon Mar-14-05 10:54 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


THIS EXIT POLL SIMULATION TEST BLOWS AWAY THE NEDERLAND "PROOF"
Edited on Sat Mar-12-05 12:51 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Nederland agrees: The Recorded votes and Final Exit poll are bogus.
Edited on Fri Mar-11-05 10:29 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


GRAPHS:1988-2004 Exit Poll to Vote - Trend reversal in 2004
Edited on Thu Mar-10-05 11:11 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


A Mathematical proof: Preliminary Exit polls are accurate
Edited on Thu Mar-10-05 09:01 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Nat Exit Poll: 7:58pm (Kerry) > 12:22am (Kerry)> 2:04pm (Bush)
Edited on Mon Mar-07-05 11:55 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Check. Mate.
Edited on Sun Mar-06-05 04:03 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


NATIONAL EXIT POLL: PRELIMINARY TO FINAL - WHAT HAPPENED?
Edited on Sat Feb-26-05 01:23 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

MITOFSKY EXIT POLL CAVEAT: "FINAL PERCENTAGES MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY"
Edited on Fri Feb-25-05 12:02 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


IT COMES TO THIS: DO YOU BELIEVE 13,047 OR 13,660?
Edited on Mon Feb-21-05 09:40 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


PRE-ELECTION STATE POLLS vs. EXIT POLLS vs. ACTUALS
Edited on Sat Feb-19-05 12:02 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


The EAST was the BEAST: Time Zone Exit Poll Discrepancy Analysis
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


BLOWN TO SMITHEREENS: MITOFSKY'S "RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER" THEORY
Edited on Sat Feb-12-05 12:46 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


THE MOST DEVASTATING STATISTIC OF ALL: 17% OF THE VOTERS WERE NEW
Edited on Fri Feb-11-05 01:05 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


1/23 UPDATE: NATIONAL EXIT POLL DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS
Edited on Sun Jan-23-05 01:50 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Pobabilities of various Party-ID weights in the National Exit Poll
Edited on Sun Jan-16-05 04:29 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...